Top Edges
BoardNBA · 12:00AM
The Play · ML
MIN
Book
-170
Nova
-209
Edge
MIN +7.3 pts
Buy-To
Minnesota Timberwolves -209 or better
Thesis
HIGH
Data
30%
Updated
10m ago
#1 · NBA · 12:00AM
GS @ MIN
MIN rates +2.3 against GS with 2.5 of home advantage, an expected margin of +4.8. Nova converts that margin to a win probability of 66.2% for MIN and 33.8% for GS.
Book
-170
Nova
-209
Edge
MIN +7.3 pts
Buy-To
Minnesota Timberwolves -209 or better
Thesis
HIGH
Data
30%
Risk: Price moves past MIN -172 or better — no edge left at that number.
10m agoMIN rates +2.3 against GS with 2.5 of home advantage, an expected margin of +4.8. Nova converts that margin to a win probability of 66.2% for MIN and 33.8% for GS.
Risk: Price moves past MIN -172 or better — no edge left at that number.
NBA · 1:30AM
The Play · Spread
OKC -5.5
Book
+5.5
Nova
+11.6
Edge
OKC 6.1 pts
Buy-To
Take Oklahoma City Thunder at -10.1 or better — inside that number the edge is spent. Nova's fair for Oklahoma City Thunder is -11.6; at the current -5.5 the edge is 6.1 pts.
Thesis
HIGH
Data
88%
Updated
10m ago
#2 · NBA · 1:30AM
OKC @ DAL
DAL rates -12.6 against OKC in Nova's opponent-adjusted ratings, plus 2.5 for home field — an expected margin of -10.1, which prices the game at +10.1. The book has it at +5.5.
Book
+5.5
Nova
+11.6
Edge
OKC 6.1 pts
Buy-To
Take Oklahoma City Thunder at -10.1 or better — inside that number the edge is spent. Nova's fair for Oklahoma City Thunder is -11.6; at the current -5.5 the edge is 6.1 pts.
Thesis
HIGH
Data
88%
Risk: Book moves away from -11.6 — edge is gone at that number.
10m agoDAL rates -12.6 against OKC in Nova's opponent-adjusted ratings, plus 2.5 for home field — an expected margin of -10.1, which prices the game at +10.1. The book has it at +5.5.
Risk: Book moves away from -11.6 — edge is gone at that number.
NBA · 11:00PM
The Play · Spread
IND +7.5
Book
+7.5
Nova
+2.2
Edge
IND 5.3 pts
Buy-To
Take Indiana Pacers at +3.6 or better — inside that number the edge is spent. Nova's fair for Indiana Pacers is +2.1; at the current +7.5 the edge is 5.3 pts.
Thesis
HIGH
Data
88%
Updated
10m ago
#3 · NBA · 11:00PM
PHI @ IND
IND rates -4.4 against PHI in Nova's opponent-adjusted ratings, plus 2.5 for home field — an expected margin of -1.9, which prices the game at +1.9. The book has it at +7.5.
Book
+7.5
Nova
+2.2
Edge
IND 5.3 pts
Buy-To
Take Indiana Pacers at +3.6 or better — inside that number the edge is spent. Nova's fair for Indiana Pacers is +2.1; at the current +7.5 the edge is 5.3 pts.
Thesis
HIGH
Data
88%
Risk: Book moves through +3.4 — edge is gone at that number.
10m agoIND rates -4.4 against PHI in Nova's opponent-adjusted ratings, plus 2.5 for home field — an expected margin of -1.9, which prices the game at +1.9. The book has it at +7.5.
Risk: Book moves through +3.4 — edge is gone at that number.
NBA · 11:00PM
The Play · Spread
CLE -10.5
Book
-10.5
Nova
-14.6
Edge
CLE 4.2 pts
Buy-To
Take Cleveland Cavaliers at -13.2 or better — inside that number the edge is spent. Nova's fair for Cleveland Cavaliers is -14.7; at the current -10.5 the edge is 4.2 pts.
Thesis
HIGH
Data
88%
Updated
10m ago
#4 · NBA · 11:00PM
WSH @ CLE
CLE rates +12.4 against WSH in Nova's opponent-adjusted ratings, plus 2.5 for home field — an expected margin of +14.9, which prices the game at -14.9. The book has it at -10.5.
Book
-10.5
Nova
-14.6
Edge
CLE 4.2 pts
Buy-To
Take Cleveland Cavaliers at -13.2 or better — inside that number the edge is spent. Nova's fair for Cleveland Cavaliers is -14.7; at the current -10.5 the edge is 4.2 pts.
Thesis
HIGH
Data
88%
Risk: Book moves through -13.4 — edge is gone at that number.
10m agoCLE rates +12.4 against WSH in Nova's opponent-adjusted ratings, plus 2.5 for home field — an expected margin of +14.9, which prices the game at -14.9. The book has it at -10.5.
Risk: Book moves through -13.4 — edge is gone at that number.
NBA · 12:00AM
The Play · Spread
NOP +4.5
Book
+4.5
Nova
+0.3
Edge
NOP 4.2 pts
Buy-To
Take New Orleans Pelicans at +1.8 or better — inside that number the edge is spent. Nova's fair for New Orleans Pelicans is +0.3; at the current +4.5 the edge is 4.2 pts.
Thesis
HIGH
Data
63%
Updated
10m ago
#5 · NBA · 12:00AM
DEN @ NOP
NOP rates -4.7 against DEN in Nova's opponent-adjusted ratings, plus 2.5 for home field — an expected margin of -2.2, which prices the game at +2.2. The book has it at +4.5.
Book
+4.5
Nova
+0.3
Edge
NOP 4.2 pts
Buy-To
Take New Orleans Pelicans at +1.8 or better — inside that number the edge is spent. Nova's fair for New Orleans Pelicans is +0.3; at the current +4.5 the edge is 4.2 pts.
Thesis
HIGH
Data
63%
Risk: Book moves through +3.7 — edge is gone at that number.
10m agoNOP rates -4.7 against DEN in Nova's opponent-adjusted ratings, plus 2.5 for home field — an expected margin of -2.2, which prices the game at +2.2. The book has it at +4.5.
Risk: Book moves through +3.7 — edge is gone at that number.
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