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Nova Performance

CLV analytics and postgame grading of Nova's reads

Postgame Calibration

worker-graded · spread reads

Model-Closer %

43.4%

MODEL 217 · MARKET 216 · TIE 44 (n=500)

Avg CLV

+0.39 pts

value side, entry vs close (n=471)

Value Record

179-117-2

COVERED-LOST-PUSH (n=298)

Graded Reads

500

spread reads of final games

Process over results. CLV measures whether Nova's entry beat the closing line — the process metric. A LEAN that lost but beat the close grades as good process. Cover result is outcome, not evaluation.

CLV Table

500 reads
Close
Cover

Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets

Oct 25 · NBA

PASS
+7.5
+7.5
0.0
—
MARKET

Detroit Red Wings @ Edmonton Oilers

Oct 25 · NHL

PASS
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
—
MODEL

Atlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets

Oct 25 · NBA

LEAN
+4.5
+4.5
0.0
LOST
MODEL

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Calgary Flames

Oct 25 · NHL

PASS
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
—
MARKET

Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz

Oct 25 · NBA

PASS
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
—
TIE

Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Oct 25 · NBA

PASS
-8.5
-8.5
0.0
—
MARKET

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

Oct 25 · NFL

PASS
+4.5
+4.5
0.0
—
MODEL

Atlanta Dream @ Golden State Valkyries

Oct 25 · WNBA

LEAN
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
COVER
MARKET

Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays

Oct 25 · MLB

PASS
-1.5
+1.5
-3.0
—
MARKET

Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks

Oct 25 · NBA

LEAN
+3.5
+3.5
0.0
COVER
MARKET

Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics

Oct 24 · NBA

LEAN
-14.5
-14.5
0.0
COVER
MARKET

Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat

Oct 24 · NBA

LEAN
-7.5
-7.5
0.0
LOST
MARKET

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Oct 24 · NBA

PASS
+3.5
+3.5
0.0
—
MODEL

Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets

Oct 24 · NBA

AWAITING DATA
—
—
—
—
—

Los Angeles Kings @ New York Rangers

Oct 24 · NHL

PASS
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
—
MARKET

Minnesota Wild @ Vancouver Canucks

Oct 24 · NHL

PASS
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
—
MODEL

Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings

Oct 24 · NBA

PASS
+3.5
+3.5
0.0
—
MODEL

Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks

Oct 24 · NFL

PASS
+3.0
+3.0
0.0
—
MODEL

Colorado Avalanche @ Nashville Predators

Oct 24 · NHL

LEAN
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
COVER
MARKET

Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers

Oct 23 · NBA

LEAN
-1.5
-1.5
0.0
COVER
MARKET

Toronto Raptors @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Oct 23 · NBA

LEAN
+3.5
+3.5
0.0
LOST
MODEL

Orlando Magic @ New York Knicks

Oct 23 · NBA

PASS
-6.5
-6.5
0.0
—
MODEL

Los Angeles Clippers @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Oct 23 · NBA

AWAITING DATA
—
—
—
—
—

Montreal Canadiens @ Winnipeg Jets

Oct 23 · NHL

PASS
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
—
MODEL

Indiana Pacers @ Brooklyn Nets

Oct 23 · NBA

LEAN
+5.5
+5.5
0.0
LOST
MODEL

New York Islanders @ Dallas Stars

Oct 23 · NHL

PASS
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
—
MODEL

Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz

Oct 23 · NBA

LEAN
+6.5
+6.5
0.0
LOST
MODEL

Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders

Oct 23 · NFL

PASS
-3.5
-3.5
0.0
—
MARKET

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

Oct 23 · NFL

PASS
-3.5
-3.5
0.0
—
MARKET

Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals

Oct 23 · NFL

PASS
-4.5
-4.5
0.0
—
MARKET

Florida Panthers @ Chicago Blackhawks

Oct 23 · NHL

PASS
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
—
MODEL

New York Giants @ Houston Texans

Oct 23 · NFL

AWAITING DATA
—
—
—
—
—

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

Oct 23 · NFL

LEAN
-3.0
-3.0
0.0
LOST
MODEL

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

Oct 23 · NFL

LEAN
+3.0
+3.0
0.0
LOST
MODEL

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Oct 23 · NFL

LEAN
-3.5
-3.5
0.0
LOST
MARKET

Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings

Oct 23 · NFL

LEAN
-6.5
-6.5
0.0
LOST
MARKET

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons

Oct 23 · NFL

PASS
-2.5
-2.5
0.0
—
MODEL

Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans

Oct 23 · NFL

PASS
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
—
MODEL

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints

Oct 23 · NFL

PASS
-3.0
-3.0
0.0
—
MARKET

North Dakota State Bison @ New Mexico Lobos

Oct 23 · NCAAF

PASS
-4.5
-4.5
0.0
—
TIE

Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns

Oct 23 · NBA

LEAN
+9.5
+9.5
0.0
COVER
MODEL

Minnesota Wild @ Seattle Kraken

Oct 23 · NHL

PASS
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
—
MODEL

Detroit Red Wings @ Calgary Flames

Oct 23 · NHL

PASS
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
—
MARKET

Houston Cougars @ Utah Utes

Oct 23 · NCAAF

LEAN
+6.5
+6.5
0.0
LOST
MODEL

UTSA Roadrunners @ Tulane Green Wave

Oct 23 · NCAAF

LEAN
+3.0
+3.0
0.0
LOST
MODEL

Houston Rockets @ Atlanta Hawks

Oct 23 · NBA

LEAN
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
LOST
MODEL

San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks

Oct 23 · NBA

PASS
+14.5
+14.5
0.0
—
MODEL

New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets

Oct 23 · NBA

LEAN
+11.5
+11.5
0.0
COVER
MODEL

Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls

Oct 23 · NBA

LEAN
-1.5
-1.5
0.0
LOST
TIE

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Utah Mammoth

Oct 23 · NHL

PASS
-1.5
-1.5
0.0
—
MARKET

Rays/Guardians @ Milwaukee Brewers

Oct 23 · MLB

LEAN
+1.5
-1.5
+3.0
COVER
MARKET

Utah State Aggies @ Texas State Bobcats

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
+14.5
+14.5
0.0
COVER
MODEL

Syracuse Orange @ North Carolina Tar Heels

Oct 22 · NCAAF

PASS
+8.5
+9.5
-1.0
—
MARKET

USC Trojans @ Wisconsin Badgers

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
+2.5
+2.5
0.0
COVER
MARKET

Ole Miss Rebels @ Texas Longhorns

Oct 22 · NCAAF

PASS
-3.0
-3.0
0.0
—
MARKET

Vanderbilt Commodores @ Kentucky Wildcats

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
-10.0
-10.5
+0.5
COVER
MARKET

Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers

Oct 22 · NBA

LEAN
+12.5
+12.5
0.0
COVER
MODEL

Iowa State Cyclones @ Arizona Wildcats

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
+11.5
+12.5
-1.0
LOST
MODEL

Brooklyn Nets @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Oct 22 · NBA

PASS
-11.5
-11.5
0.0
—
MARKET

Virginia Tech Hokies @ Clemson Tigers

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
+3.0
+3.0
0.0
COVER
MARKET

Colorado Buffaloes @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

Oct 22 · NCAAF

PASS
-13.5
-13.5
0.0
—
MARKET

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Edmonton Oilers

Oct 22 · NHL

PASS
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
—
MARKET

Vegas Golden Knights @ Columbus Blue Jackets

Oct 22 · NHL

PLAY
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
COVER
MARKET

Carolina Hurricanes @ St. Louis Blues

Oct 22 · NHL

PASS
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
—
MODEL

Buffalo Sabres @ Washington Capitals

Oct 22 · NHL

PASS
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
—
MODEL

Nashville Predators @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Oct 22 · NHL

LEAN
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
COVER
MODEL

New York Rangers @ Ottawa Senators

Oct 22 · NHL

PASS
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
—
MODEL

San Jose Sharks @ Boston Bruins

Oct 22 · NHL

PASS
-1.5
-1.5
0.0
—
MARKET

Georgia State Panthers @ Arkansas State Red Wolves

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
-2.5
-2.5
0.0
LOST
MODEL

San Diego State Aztecs @ Colorado State Rams

Oct 22 · NCAAF

PLAY
-1.5
-1.5
0.0
COVER
MARKET

Boise State Broncos @ Washington State Cougars

Oct 22 · NCAAF

PASS
+14.5
+14.5
0.0
—
MODEL

Miami Heat @ Charlotte Hornets

Oct 22 · NBA

AWAITING DATA
—
—
—
—
—

San José State Spartans @ Nevada Wolf Pack

Oct 22 · NCAAF

PASS
-5.5
-5.5
0.0
—
TIE

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Oct 22 · NCAAF

PASS
-11.5
-11.5
0.0
—
TIE

Old Dominion Monarchs @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
-13.5
-13.5
0.0
COVER
MARKET

UL Monroe Warhawks @ Troy Trojans

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
-13.5
-13.5
0.0
LOST
MARKET

Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Ohio Bobcats

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
-11.5
-11.5
0.0
LOST
MARKET

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors @ Northern Illinois Huskies

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
+3.0
+3.0
0.0
LOST
MODEL

Sacramento State Hornets @ Ball State Cardinals

Oct 22 · NCAAF

PLAY
+14.5
+14.5
0.0
LOST
MODEL

Bowling Green Falcons @ Buffalo Bulls

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
-3.0
-3.0
0.0
COVER
MARKET

North Texas Mean Green @ Navy Midshipmen

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
-3.0
-3.0
0.0
COVER
MARKET

Oklahoma Sooners @ Mississippi State Bulldogs

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
LOST
MODEL

Tennessee Volunteers @ South Carolina Gamecocks

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
+2.5
+2.5
0.0
LOST
MODEL

Boston College Eagles @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
+6.5
+6.5
0.0
COVER
MARKET

Texas A&M Aggies @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Oct 22 · NCAAF

PASS
+13.5
+13.5
0.0
—
MODEL

Kansas State Wildcats @ Arizona State Sun Devils

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
-1.5
-1.5
0.0
LOST
MODEL

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Minnesota Golden Gophers

Oct 22 · NCAAF

PASS
+7.5
+7.5
0.0
—
TIE

Michigan State Spartans @ UCLA Bruins

Oct 22 · NCAAF

PASS
+16.5
+16.5
0.0
—
TIE

BYU Cougars @ UCF Knights

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
+7.5
+7.5
0.0
COVER
MARKET

Los Angeles Kings @ New Jersey Devils

Oct 22 · NHL

PASS
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
—
MODEL

Oregon Ducks @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
+10.5
+10.5
0.0
COVER
MARKET

Miami (OH) RedHawks @ Central Michigan Chippewas

Oct 22 · NCAAF

PASS
+3.5
+3.5
0.0
—
MODEL

Akron Zips @ Kent State Golden Flashes

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
+3.0
+3.0
0.0
LOST
MODEL

Baylor Bears @ Kansas Jayhawks

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
COVER
MODEL

Anaheim Ducks @ Philadelphia Flyers

Oct 22 · NHL

PASS
+1.5
+1.5
0.0
—
TIE

Golden State Valkyries @ Atlanta Dream

Oct 22 · WNBA

LEAN
+5.5
+5.5
0.0
COVER
MARKET

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Cincinnati Bearcats

Oct 22 · NCAAF

PASS
+10.5
+10.5
0.0
—
MARKET

Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan Wolverines

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
-7.0
-7.5
+0.5
PUSH
MARKET

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Miami Hurricanes

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
+20.5
+20.5
0.0
LOST
MODEL

LSU Tigers @ Auburn Tigers

Oct 22 · NCAAF

LEAN
-7.0
-7.0
0.0
COVER
MODEL

Showing 100 of 500 graded reads

Calibration

PUBLISHED
1861 graded1807 decidedApr 7 – Oct 20calib-v1.0.0Brier 0.275

Sample of 1807 graded picks clears the 200-pick gate.

Realized vs implied

0-4

74%

implied 1% · n31

+73.6pp

40-44

79%

implied 40% · n231

+38.8pp

45-49

22%

implied 45% · n9

-22.8pp

50-54

46%

implied 52% · n122

-6pp

55-59

69%

implied 57% · n315

+12.1pp

60-64

48%

implied 62% · n335

-13.8pp

65-69

60%

implied 67% · n215

-6.3pp

70-74

57%

implied 71% · n287

-13.2pp

75-79

56%

implied 78% · n261

-22.2pp

80-84

100%

implied 80% · n1

+20pp

Wrong side, moneyline

misses

156

of 406

nhl

150

misses

mlb

5

misses

nfl

1

misses

Published thresholds

moneyline0 → 0.02

moneyline picks hit 61.6% against an implied 71.5% over 406 graded picks. Require a wider edge before alerting.

min_edge_probability · n406 · -9.9pp

Legacy P/L Tracking

Net P/L

-6.5u

Record

3-8

27.3% win rate

Units Risked

12.5u

11 plays

ROI

-52.0%

Cumulative P/L

11 graded plays
1234567891011-12-9-6-30

By League

wnba

+0.0u

1-1

ncaaf

-1.5u

2-3

mlb

-5.0u

0-4

Recent Plays

Tennessee @ Arkansas

Oct 10 · NCAAF

HomeSpread
b
24-17
W
+1.0u

Maryland @ Ohio State

Oct 10 · NCAAF

AwaySpread
b
16-45
W
+1.0u

Buffalo @ Toledo

Oct 10 · NCAAF

HomeSpread
b
23-8
L
-1.0u

North Carolina @ Pittsburgh

Oct 10 · NCAAF

HomeSpread
b
21-17
L
-1.0u

Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Oct 3 · MLB

AwaySpread
b
3-5
L
-1.0u

Penn State @ Northwestern

Oct 2 · NCAAF

HomeSpread
b
13-34
L
-1.5u

Dallas Wings @ Golden State Valkyries

Oct 2 · WNBA

AwaySpread
b
73-77
W
+1.0u

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

Oct 1 · MLB

AwayML
b
2-6
L
-2.0u

Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres

Oct 1 · MLB

AwaySpread
b
1-4
L
-1.0u

Indiana Fever @ Las Vegas Aces

Sep 30 · WNBA

AwaySpread
bminus
83-94
L
-1.0u

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

Sep 29 · MLB

AwayML
b
3-5
L
-1.0u
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