Nova Performance
CLV analytics and postgame grading of Nova's reads
Postgame Calibration
worker-graded · spread readsModel-Closer %
43.4%
MODEL 217 · MARKET 216 · TIE 44 (n=500)
Avg CLV
+0.39 pts
value side, entry vs close (n=471)
Value Record
179-117-2
COVERED-LOST-PUSH (n=298)
Graded Reads
500
spread reads of final games
Process over results. CLV measures whether Nova's entry beat the closing line — the process metric. A LEAN that lost but beat the close grades as good process. Cover result is outcome, not evaluation.
CLV Table
Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets
Oct 25 · NBA
Detroit Red Wings @ Edmonton Oilers
Oct 25 · NHL
Atlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets
Oct 25 · NBA
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Calgary Flames
Oct 25 · NHL
Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz
Oct 25 · NBA
Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Oct 25 · NBA
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Oct 25 · NFL
Atlanta Dream @ Golden State Valkyries
Oct 25 · WNBA
Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays
Oct 25 · MLB
Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks
Oct 25 · NBA
Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics
Oct 24 · NBA
Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat
Oct 24 · NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Oct 24 · NBA
Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets
Oct 24 · NBA
Los Angeles Kings @ New York Rangers
Oct 24 · NHL
Minnesota Wild @ Vancouver Canucks
Oct 24 · NHL
Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings
Oct 24 · NBA
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks
Oct 24 · NFL
Colorado Avalanche @ Nashville Predators
Oct 24 · NHL
Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers
Oct 23 · NBA
Toronto Raptors @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Oct 23 · NBA
Orlando Magic @ New York Knicks
Oct 23 · NBA
Los Angeles Clippers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Oct 23 · NBA
Montreal Canadiens @ Winnipeg Jets
Oct 23 · NHL
Indiana Pacers @ Brooklyn Nets
Oct 23 · NBA
New York Islanders @ Dallas Stars
Oct 23 · NHL
Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz
Oct 23 · NBA
Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders
Oct 23 · NFL
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Oct 23 · NFL
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
Oct 23 · NFL
Florida Panthers @ Chicago Blackhawks
Oct 23 · NHL
New York Giants @ Houston Texans
Oct 23 · NFL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Oct 23 · NFL
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Oct 23 · NFL
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Oct 23 · NFL
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
Oct 23 · NFL
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Oct 23 · NFL
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
Oct 23 · NFL
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints
Oct 23 · NFL
North Dakota State Bison @ New Mexico Lobos
Oct 23 · NCAAF
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
Oct 23 · NBA
Minnesota Wild @ Seattle Kraken
Oct 23 · NHL
Detroit Red Wings @ Calgary Flames
Oct 23 · NHL
Houston Cougars @ Utah Utes
Oct 23 · NCAAF
UTSA Roadrunners @ Tulane Green Wave
Oct 23 · NCAAF
Houston Rockets @ Atlanta Hawks
Oct 23 · NBA
San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks
Oct 23 · NBA
New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets
Oct 23 · NBA
Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls
Oct 23 · NBA
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Utah Mammoth
Oct 23 · NHL
Rays/Guardians @ Milwaukee Brewers
Oct 23 · MLB
Utah State Aggies @ Texas State Bobcats
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Syracuse Orange @ North Carolina Tar Heels
Oct 22 · NCAAF
USC Trojans @ Wisconsin Badgers
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Ole Miss Rebels @ Texas Longhorns
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Vanderbilt Commodores @ Kentucky Wildcats
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers
Oct 22 · NBA
Iowa State Cyclones @ Arizona Wildcats
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Brooklyn Nets @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Oct 22 · NBA
Virginia Tech Hokies @ Clemson Tigers
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Colorado Buffaloes @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Edmonton Oilers
Oct 22 · NHL
Vegas Golden Knights @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Oct 22 · NHL
Carolina Hurricanes @ St. Louis Blues
Oct 22 · NHL
Buffalo Sabres @ Washington Capitals
Oct 22 · NHL
Nashville Predators @ Pittsburgh Penguins
Oct 22 · NHL
New York Rangers @ Ottawa Senators
Oct 22 · NHL
San Jose Sharks @ Boston Bruins
Oct 22 · NHL
Georgia State Panthers @ Arkansas State Red Wolves
Oct 22 · NCAAF
San Diego State Aztecs @ Colorado State Rams
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Boise State Broncos @ Washington State Cougars
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Miami Heat @ Charlotte Hornets
Oct 22 · NBA
San José State Spartans @ Nevada Wolf Pack
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Old Dominion Monarchs @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Oct 22 · NCAAF
UL Monroe Warhawks @ Troy Trojans
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Ohio Bobcats
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors @ Northern Illinois Huskies
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Sacramento State Hornets @ Ball State Cardinals
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Bowling Green Falcons @ Buffalo Bulls
Oct 22 · NCAAF
North Texas Mean Green @ Navy Midshipmen
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Oklahoma Sooners @ Mississippi State Bulldogs
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Tennessee Volunteers @ South Carolina Gamecocks
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Boston College Eagles @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Texas A&M Aggies @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Kansas State Wildcats @ Arizona State Sun Devils
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Minnesota Golden Gophers
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Michigan State Spartans @ UCLA Bruins
Oct 22 · NCAAF
BYU Cougars @ UCF Knights
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Los Angeles Kings @ New Jersey Devils
Oct 22 · NHL
Oregon Ducks @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Miami (OH) RedHawks @ Central Michigan Chippewas
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Akron Zips @ Kent State Golden Flashes
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Baylor Bears @ Kansas Jayhawks
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Anaheim Ducks @ Philadelphia Flyers
Oct 22 · NHL
Golden State Valkyries @ Atlanta Dream
Oct 22 · WNBA
Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Cincinnati Bearcats
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan Wolverines
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Pittsburgh Panthers @ Miami Hurricanes
Oct 22 · NCAAF
LSU Tigers @ Auburn Tigers
Oct 22 · NCAAF
Showing 100 of 500 graded reads
Calibration
Sample of 1807 graded picks clears the 200-pick gate.
Realized vs implied
0-4
74%
implied 1% · n31
+73.6pp
40-44
79%
implied 40% · n231
+38.8pp
45-49
22%
implied 45% · n9
-22.8pp
50-54
46%
implied 52% · n122
-6pp
55-59
69%
implied 57% · n315
+12.1pp
60-64
48%
implied 62% · n335
-13.8pp
65-69
60%
implied 67% · n215
-6.3pp
70-74
57%
implied 71% · n287
-13.2pp
75-79
56%
implied 78% · n261
-22.2pp
80-84
100%
implied 80% · n1
+20pp
Wrong side, moneyline
misses
156
of 406
nhl
150
misses
mlb
5
misses
nfl
1
misses
Published thresholds
moneyline picks hit 61.6% against an implied 71.5% over 406 graded picks. Require a wider edge before alerting.
min_edge_probability · n406 · -9.9pp
Legacy P/L Tracking
Net P/L
-6.5u
Record
3-8
27.3% win rate
Units Risked
12.5u
11 plays
ROI
-52.0%
Cumulative P/L
11 graded playsBy League
wnba
+0.0u
1-1
ncaaf
-1.5u
2-3
mlb
-5.0u
0-4
Recent Plays
Tennessee @ Arkansas
Oct 10 · NCAAF
Maryland @ Ohio State
Oct 10 · NCAAF
Buffalo @ Toledo
Oct 10 · NCAAF
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh
Oct 10 · NCAAF
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Oct 3 · MLB
Penn State @ Northwestern
Oct 2 · NCAAF
Dallas Wings @ Golden State Valkyries
Oct 2 · WNBA
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
Oct 1 · MLB
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
Oct 1 · MLB
Indiana Fever @ Las Vegas Aces
Sep 30 · WNBA
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
Sep 29 · MLB
